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Why would a casino try and stop you from losing? How can a mathematical formula find your future spouse? Would you know if a statistical analysis blackballed you from a job you wanted?
Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new book, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers. From internet sites like Google and Amazon that know your tastes better than you do, to a physician's diagnosis and your child's education, to boardrooms and government agencies, this new breed of decision makers are calling the shots. And they are delivering staggeringly accurate results. How can a football coach evaluate a player without ever seeing him play? Want to know whether the price of an airline ticket will go up or down before you buy? How can a formula outpredict wine experts in determining the best vintages? Super crunchers have the answers. In this brave new world of equation versus expertise, Ayres shows us the benefits and risks, who loses and who wins, and how super crunching can be used to help, not manipulate us.
Gone are the days of solely relying on intuition to make decisions. No businessperson, consumer, or student who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Super Crunchers.
- Sales Rank: #406464 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Bantam
- Published on: 2007-08-28
- Released on: 2007-08-28
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.30" h x 1.00" w x 6.25" l, .99 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 272 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
From Publishers Weekly
Yale Law School professor and econometrician Ayres argues in this lively and enjoyable book that the recent creation of huge data sets allows knowledgeable individuals to make previously impossible predictions. He calls the data set analysts super crunchers and discusses the changes they're making to industries like medical diagnostics, air travel pricing, screenwriting and online dating services. Although Ayres presents both sides of this revolution, explaining how the corporate world tries to manipulate consumer behavior and telling consumers how to fight back, his real mission is to educate readers about the basics of statistics and hypothesis testing, spending most of his time in an edifying and entertaining discussion of the use of regression and randomization trials. He frequently asks whether statistical methods are more accurate than the more intuitive conclusions drawn by experts, and consistently concludes that they are. Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined. (Sept. 4)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Review
"In the past, one could get by on intuition and experience. Times have changed. Today, the name of the game is data. Ian Ayres shows us how and why in this groundbreaking book Super Crunchers. Not only is it fun to read, it just may change the way you think."—Steven D. Levitt, author of Freakonomics
"Data-mining and statistical analysis have suddenly become cool.... Dissecting marketing, politics, and even sports, stuff this complex and important shouldn't be this much fun to read."—Wired
"[Ayres's] thesis is provocative: Complex statistical models could be used to market products more intelligently, craft better movies, and solve health-care problems—if only we could get past our statistics phobia."—Portfolio
"When statistics conflict with expert opinion, bet on statistics....Businesses, consumers, and governments are waking up to the power of analyzing enormous tracts of information."—Discover
"Super Crunchers shows that data-driven decisionmaking is not just revolutionizing baseball and business; it's changing the way that education policy, health care reimbursements, even tax regulations are crafted. Super Crunching is truly reinventing government. Politicians love to tout policy proposals, but they rarely come back and tell you which ones succeeded and which ones failed. Data-driven policy making forces government to ask the bottom line question of 'What works.' That's an approach we can all support."—John Podesta, President of the Center for American Progress
"A lively and yet rigorously careful account of the use of quantitative methods for analysis and decision-making.... Both social scientists and businessmen can profit from this book, while enjoying themselves in the process."—Dr. Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize winning economist, and Professor Emeritus at Stanford University
“Ayres’ point is that human beings put far too much faith in their intuition and would often be better off listening to the numbers.... The best stories in the book are about Ayres and other economists he knows, whether they are studying wine, the Supreme Court or jobless benefits.... Ayres himself is one of the [statistical] detectives. He has done fascinating research.”—The New York Times Book Review
"Ian Ayres [is] a law-and-economics guru."—Chronicle of Higher Education
“Lively and enjoyable.... Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined.... Edifying and entertaining."—Publishers Weekly
"Super Crunchers presents a convincing and disturbing vision of a future in which everyday decision-making is increasingly automated, and the role of human judgment restricted to providing input to formulae."—The Economist
"Insightful and delightful!" —Forbes
About the Author
Ian Ayres ,an econometrician and lawyer, is the William K. Townsend Professor at Yale Law School, and a professor at Yale's School of Management. He is a regular commentator on public radio's Marketplace and a columnist for Forbes magazine. He is currently the editor of the Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, and has written eight books and more than a hundred articles.
Most helpful customer reviews
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Leveraging data-driven insights are really the only way any of us should be making decisions
By Brian
Great book on the importance of data-driven decision making. While I have always been someone that has let the data do the talking, I haven't found an easy way to explain why. Super Crunchers is that easy way! Below I have summarized some of the important points of the book....
Super Crunching is crucially about the impact of statistical analysis on real-world decisions. Two core techniques for Super Crunching are the regression and randomization.
1. Regression will make your predictions more accurate (Historical approach):
It all starts with the use of regressions, and although this method is a basic statistical test of causal relationship it's still a very powerful tool that I need to re-introduce in my analytical life.
Regressions make predictions and tell you how precise the prediction is. It tries to hone in on the causal impact of a variable on a dependent. It can tell us the weights to place upon various factors and simultaneously tell us how precisely it was able to estimate these weights.
2. Randomization and large sample sizes (Present/Real-Time approach):
Reliance on historical data increases the difficulty in discerning causation. Large randomized tests work because the distribution amongst the sample are increasingly identical. Think A/B testing on steroids that allows you to quickly test different combinations! Boils down to the averages of the "treated and untreated" groups.
Government has embraced randomization as the best way to test what works. Statistical profiling led to smarter targeting of government support
With finite amounts of data, we can only estimate a finite number of causal effects
3. Neural network
Unlike the regression approach, which estimates the weights to apply to a single equation, the neural approach uses a system of equations represented by a series of interconnected switches.
Computers use historical data to train the equation switches to come up with optimal weights. But while the neural technique can yield powerful predictions, it does a poorer job of telling you why it is working or how much confidence it has in its prediction.
Super Crunching requires analysis of the results of repeated decisions. If you can't measure what you're trying to maximize, you're not going to be able to rely on data-driven decisions.
We humans just overestimate our ability to make good decisions and we're skeptical that a formula that necessarily ignores innumerable pieces of information could do a better job than we could.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Enjoyable introduction to the power of statistics and big data
By Derrick
Overall the book is very entertaining and instructive about the way analysis of large data sets is changing our social and economic landscape. The author shares some deep insights, even for someone experienced in data analysis.
The author makes some logical missteps though. when referring to Sherlock Holme's method as deduction (instead of a combination of induction and abduction), and assuming a normal distribution in asset markets (which has been shown to be a poor model for asset prices). It's a bit nitpicky to be sure, which one might let pass for a book on a different topic, but very strange mistakes to make for a book on data science.
Great, quick read otherwise!
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Thinking with numbers, good read (probably will make you look cool at work)
By Michelle Elizabeth
Thinking by numbers is the new way to be smart - I dig it.
Between this book and the Numerati, I feel really smart and also super sketched out by everyone knowing what I buy.
Probably should stop leaving reviews.
just sayin'.
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